Wayne County Skywarn

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 292019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FAR SRN CWFA...SO PCPN CHANCES HAVE
ENDED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL
SETTLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACRS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH AN UPR LVL
NW FLOW REGIME IN PLACE...FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A MIX OF DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AS AN UPR LVL WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA DEVELOPING BETWEEN 8K
AND 12K FEET. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE NW
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK..SO WILL ONLY MENTION PCPN AS LIGHT SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HINT AT SOME WEAK ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK
BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ALMOST NO INSTABILITY SO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST.

OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH TOO WARM WITH THE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE MEX FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY.
THESE NUMBERS SEEM UNREALISTIC ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF A DEEP
RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE. GOING WITH THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTIONS OF
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S...SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY. THIS MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS WARM SPELLS
THIS SUMMER...BUT EXPECT HOTTEST CONDITIONS TO STAY WELL TO THE WEST
OF HERE. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO THE NNE FOR THE TAF SITES. HAVE SEEN A FEW MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE IMPROVING AS THE FRONT
MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SO WILL GO WITH A VFR FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT...NE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR LEADING TO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL. WILL INCLUDE SOME RESTRICTIONS
AT KLUK.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA...WITH VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING AND SOME HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING IN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...HATZOS

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion